Internet Searches Analysis
Undoubtedly, the tourism industry has been severely affected by COVID-19, and it may take the longest time to recover. In this article, I will analyze the current trends in the United States tourism market during the “COVID-19 season,” examine internet user behaviors, and provide search predictions for the near future. First, let’s explore the internet searches for some of the main tourist destinations in the country:
Unsurprisingly, hotel searches experienced a significant drop after March 2019. Since then, most destinations have been slowly recovering. However, “myrtle beach hotel searches” have seen a remarkable increase after the initial drop, surpassing values from previous seasons. Let’s now examine similar destinations to Myrtle Beach in different parts of the country to see if we observe similar trends:
Apparently, people are actively searching for these types of coastal destinations. Perhaps they want to escape crowded areas and opt for more secluded locations. Now, let’s shift our focus to mountain destinations. Are people also searching for hotels in mountainous areas?
Search trends for mountain destinations have been recovering but remain below the levels seen in previous seasons. It would be interesting to analyze Google search trends for popular tourist cities like New York and San Francisco. Do people show interest in searching for hotels in these urban areas?
The interest in city hotel searches appears to be lower than the historical levels of searches. To summarize the searches for each category, let’s consolidate the data to gain a clearer understanding of the overall picture:
Internet Searches Forecast
When we examine the search results together, categorized by destination type, the findings become even more evident. By using data from the past three years, we can attempt to predict internet searches for different types of destination hotels for the upcoming year. We have implemented a forecasting procedure using the R language, based on an additive model that incorporates non-linear trends and accounts for yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality.
According to these results, hotel searches for these destinations will not fully recover by 2021 unless a COVID-19 vaccine becomes available by the end of 2020. People are eagerly waiting to travel and are willing to allocate a larger budget for their vacation
